UPDATED: Winter Storm Slides Up Coast

UPDATED: 8:54 a.m., Friday:

As of Friday morning, the National Weather Service has upgraded Lower Bucks County to a Winter Storm Warning. The track of the storm has also been forecasted to move ever so closer to the coastline, which means our snowfall forecast is now slightly higher, more in the 4 to 8 inch range. Confidence is still moderate and the boom or bust potential remains equal chances.

This could be – key words there, could be – the highest one-time snowfall opportunity this season. Beyond this storm, the temperatures trend goes up. If you haven’t gone out to get the grocery store “essentials”, you still have plenty of time before the bulk of the moisture arrives later Friday afternoon.

Original Story:

After hemming and hawing throughout the week about the track of the latest nor’easter, the tea leaves are still a little muddled. For snow lovers, unfortunately, the overall outlook doesn’t look good. There have been several big terms used to describe this storm, and some sounds rather scary: Bombogenesis, Divergence, and Jet Streak.

In reality, the “bombing out” of the storm, or bombogenesis, is a deep strengthening of the storm that will likely occur over the ocean but closer to the New England states, and could resemble a hurricane. Beyond the snowfall, winds will increase while the storm is moving up the Jersey coast. Unlike the other chances of accumulating snow this season, however, precipitation will start out as snow and remain snow, thanks to a weak cold front that will move through on Friday, ahead of the snowstorm.

This cold front is, in part, what is keeping the weather models from resolving, even as the storm impacts get closer. Raw forecast snow totals have been in a wide range, playing into the meme about the 1 to 30 inches forecast. 

For now, those high-end totals are not expected. Either way, the Lower Bucks County area will only feel the fringe effects of this low pressure system, which will also mean there could be a steep gradient in accumulation between here and parts of Central and Southern New Jersey.

First off, a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for all of Lower Bucks County, which means the possibility is there for significant snowfall. In total, I think the area will see 3 to 6 inches of snow from Friday to late Saturday. I would call confidence in this forecast is moderate, with equal chances of boom or bust. 

Through Thursday night and into Friday, clouds will be increasing until mid-morning when the first flakes might start falling. These are mainly attributed to the cold front I mentioned earlier. There could be a break in the snow in the afternoon before the snow starts again in the evening. Winds will increase going into Saturday early morning.

The snow begins to exit Saturday afternoon with winds slowing dying down as well, but as the temperatures drops behind the “winter hurricane”, wind chills could drop below zero. The sun will be out most of the day on Sunday to hopefully help melt some snow, but the temperatures remain below freezing until the start of the workweek. 

FORECAST:

Thursday Night – Increasing clouds. Lows in the mid-20s. Light winds from the south around 5 mph.

Friday – Flurries and light snow in the morning, then steadier snow in the afternoon and evening. Highs in the mid- to upper 30s. Variable winds shifting to from the northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

Friday Night – Snow, steady at times. Lows in the lower 20s. Winds from the northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday – Snow, tapering off in the afternoon. Highs in the mid-20s. Winds from the northwest at 10 to 15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph. Total snow accumulation forecasted: 3 to 6”.

Saturday Night – Partly cloudy with a lingering flurry possible. Cold, with lows in the lower teens. Winds from the northwest at 5-10 mph.

Sunday – Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 20s. Winds from the west-northwest around 5 mph.

AVERAGE HIGH – 39

AVERAGE LOW – 24

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