Poll: Josh Shapiro Leads Stacy Garrity By 13 Points

(The Center Square) – Gov. Josh Shapiro maintains a positive job approval rating and double-digit lead over State Treasurer Stacy Garrity in his bid for a second term, although the latest Quinnipiac University poll shows that gap starting to narrow.

The Quinnipiac University poll that surveyed 895 self-identified registered voters in Pennsylvania from July 9-13 showed that 53% support Shapiro’s bid for a second term as governor, while 40% support Garrity. 

Both candidates have commanding numbers among registered voters in their respective parties, while Shapiro holds a strong advantage among independents. 

In the latest poll, 96% of Democrats support Shapiro’s campaign, while 1% back Garrity’s bid. Eighty-seven percent of Republicans are supporting Garrity’s bid to unseat Shapiro, while 10% are supporting Shapiro’s bid for a second term. 

Fifty-eight percent of independents would vote for Shapiro if the election were held today, while 29% said they would vote for Garrity. 

Like other polling conducted over the past few months, Shapiro maintains a double-digit lead and is viewed as the favorite in this race, though Garrity is cutting into it, albeit slowly.

In February, Shapiro held an 18-point lead over Garrity, with 55% saying they would vote for him, while 37% said they were backing Garrity.

A majority of Pennsylvanians approve of Shapiro’s handling of his job as governor. Fifty-six percent said they approve of Shapiro’s job performance while 34% disapprove, while 11% offered no opinion.

Fifty-one percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Shapiro, while 33% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 14% haven’t heard enough about him. 

For Garrity, 22% have a favorable opinion of her, while 18% have an unfavorable opinion, and 58% haven’t heard enough about her. 

“Still one of the country’s most popular governors, Josh Shapiro benefits by his opponent Stacy Garrity’s greatest obstacle: people don’t know much about her,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

The Cook Political Report, a national ratings outlet, describes the race as “solid Democrat.”

President Donald Trump, however, said Wednesday that “this guy Shapiro is totally overrated.”

“I watched him the other night doing a speech and he does not have what it takes,” the president said during the Defense and Innovation Summit in Cumberland County. “Maybe he’ll win, and he’s expected to win, but I hear things about Stacy, and I’m hearing some poll numbers that are very good.”

Trump’s comments came just three hours after the governor sat on the stage with Republican U.S. Sen. Dave McCormick to discuss the commonwealth’s opportunity to support defense manufacturing. 

“But, Shapiro, he doesn’t have what it takes,” the president said. “Now people think that’s a horrible statement to make, but that’s the way politics is.” 

Although Trump won the state’s 19 electoral votes in 2024 over Vice President Kamala Harris, a majority of Pennsylvanians currently disapprove of his job performance as president.

Fifty-eight percent disapprove of Trump’s handling of his job as president, while 39% approve, and 3% had no opinion. The latest poll is slightly worse than February’s survey, which showed 40% said they approved of Trump’s job performance, while 55% disapproved. 

Thirty-nine percent of voters said they approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, while 58% disapprove. This is a minor change from February, when the same number, 39%, approved of the president’s handling of the economy, while 56% disapproved.

The economy is top of mind for those polled in Pennsylvania. 

When voters were given a list of 11 issues and asked which, if any, are important to them when deciding who to vote for in the election for governor, 74% selected the economy and 73% picked cost of living to top the list. The seven other issues that eclipsed 50% were healthcare (66%), ethics in government (57%), immigration (57%), crime (53%), the right to vote (53%), energy costs (51%), and gun violence (50%).

Forty-four percent of voters in the Keystone State say they are worse off financially than they were a year ago, while 36% say they are better off financially than they were a year ago. 19% responded by saying they are the same financially. 

A Quinnipiac University poll of registered voters in Pennsylvania in February showed that 36% said they were worse off financially than they were a year ago, while 40% said they were better off, and 22%, a few months ago, said that they were the same financially as they were a year ago.

Fifty-two percent of voters think the nation’s economy is getting worse, while 21% think it’s getting better, and 26% think it’s staying about the same. This shows a few point difference from the February polling that had 47% who thought the nation’s economy was getting worse, with 28% who believed that the nation’s economy was getting better, and 23% who thought it was staying about the same.

The latest polling also shows both of the state’s U.S. Senators with positive approval ratings, although neither are as high as Shapiro’s numbers. 

U.S. Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., has a positive approval rating for his job performance, although his numbers are stronger with the opposing party. 

Forty-eight percent of voters approve of the way Fetterman is handling his job as United States Senator, while 41% disapprove, with 11% not offering an opinion.

However, 69% of Democrats disapprove of Fetterman’s job performance, while 19% approve. 77% of Republicans approve of the way the Democratic senator is handling his job, while 12% disapprove. Among independents, 48% disapprove of the way Fetterman is handling his job and 44% approve.

Fifty-two percent polled would like to see Fetterman leave the Democratic Party, while 31% would like to see him stay, with 16% not offering an opinion.

As for McCormick, 40% of voters approve of the way he’s handling his job as Senator, while 33% disapprove, and 28% offered no opinion.

Another topic that has garnered the attention of Pennsylvanians are AI data centers. 

Seventy-six percent say they are following news about AI data centers either very closely (26%) or somewhat closely (50%), while 24% say they are following news about AI data centers not too closely.

Seventy-four percent of voters say they would oppose building an AI data center in their community, while 16% say they would support it, with 10% not offering an opinion.

This is a several-point difference from the February survey, which showed 68% said they would oppose building an AI data center in their community, while 20% said they would support it, and 12% not offer an opinion.

“Nothing artificial about Pennsylvania voters’ take on the advent of AI,” Malloy said. “Opposition grows as the inevitable new industry plants roots in their neighborhoods.”

Twenty-four percent approve of Shapiro’s handling of AI data centers in Pennsylvania, while 34% disapprove, and 42% not offering an opinion.

This story was first published by the The Center Square, a statehouse and statewide news news organization.