Pennsbury Enrollment Falls Below Projections

Eleanor Roosevelt Elementary School Credit: Tom Sofield/LevittownNow.com

The Pennsbury School District is grappling with an enrollment decline for the 2025-2026 school year.

The district that educates students from Falls Township, Lower Makefield Township, Tullytown Borough, and Yardley Borough reported 319 fewer students than the previous year, according to data presented to the school board last week.

The decline represents a 3.32 percent drop and come amid a nationwide trend of falling school enrollment.

The district’s Oct. 1 enrollment verification showed that actual student numbers were lower than initial projections across multiple grade levels.

“The actual enrollment for the 2025-26 school year was lower than the projections that we did receive,” said Dr. Kristopher Brown, Pennsbury’s assistant superintendent for administration. “Specifically, you’ll see at the elementary level nearly 100 students below.”

The district had contracted with FutureThink to develop 10-year enrollment projections, which analyzed live birth data, historical enrollment, and community demographics.

The most significant impact of the declining enrollment is at the elementary school level.

Kindergarten and first-grade enrollment has remained below 700 students for consecutive years, with kindergarten enrollment now “approaching 600 students,” Brown said.

Elementary schools are experiencing a noticeable gap between exiting and entering classes.

Edgewood Elementary School in Lower Makefield Township saw nearly 80 fifth-grade students move up last year, but only 54 kindergarten students entered this year, and Quarry Hill Elementary School in Lower Makefield Township had more than 90 fifth-graders exit last year, compared to 73 kindergarten students welcomed this year.

“When we mentioned kindergarten and first grade with larger classes exiting and smaller classes entering, you can see what that will do across the district to the size in terms of the number of students in our elementary schools,” Brown said.

The district operates 10 elementary schools, with Eleanor Roosevelt Elementary School in Falls Township being the largest at 574 students.

Three of the district’s elementary schools—Afton, Edgewood, and Eleanor Roosevelt—host specialized learning classrooms for special education students from across the district.

Superintendent Dr. Thomas Smith noted that the district historically sees an approximately 8 percent to 10 percent bump in enrollment when students who attended preschool programs enter first grade, as kindergarten is not compulsory education.

Middle schools showed mixed trends, with both Charles Boehm and Penwood middle schools in Lower Makefield Township reporting sixth-grade enrollment numbers much higher than the previous school year.

Pennwood Middle School. Credit: Google Maps

The high school reported an enrollment slightly below 2,800 students for grades nine through 12.

The Pennsbury Cyber Academy, the district virtual school option, had enrollment increase to 83 students from 57 last year, while the regional Bucks County Technical High School enrollment remained consistent at 323 students.

Brown cautioned that while overall enrollment is declining, student needs do not often decline at the same rate.

The current enrollment decline can impact future projections and planning, and the district will continue monitoring trends as they impact future staffing and budget decisions, Brown stated.

The enrollment data have a part in the district’s planning for its new high school project.

School Board Member Linda Palsky stated that “these demographic numbers played a big part in our planning and design of our new high school.”

During public comment, Lower Makefield Township resident Robert Abrams suggested the district should decrease its budget proportionally to the enrollment decline.

The decline in Pennsbury reflects a nationwide trend.

File photo Credit: Tom Sofield/LevittownNow.com

People are having fewer children and having them later in life, leading to fewer school-age children overall, according to national data and reporting. School choice and home schooling have also seen upticks nationwide since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

A National Center for Education Statistics study from last year projected a decline of 7.6 percent in nationwide school enrollment by 2031.

Additionally, a Gallup poll from earlier this year showed that adult satisfaction with the country’s public education system has fallen from 37 percent to 24 percent between 2017 and 2025.

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