Credit: Tom Sofield/LevittownNow.com
The year 2020 was set up to be the toughest year of Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick’s political career. He won a squeaker in 2018 against someone experts considered a weak opponent. He arguably under-performed in his 2020 primary. In one of the few Clinton/GOP districts in the nation, he had to run with Donald Trump on the top of the ticket while the COVID-19 pandemic raged on.
Yet despite all of that, Fitzpatrick won by nearly fifteen points last November, the largest victory of his tenure. How did he do it? To find out, I dug into the numbers, creating a precinct map of the 2020 First Congressional District contest to compare and contrast with some 2018 and 2016 results.
2020 vs. 2018: Where Finello Lost Ground
(All maps by Nick Field via Dave’s Redistricting)
Advertisements
The issue for Bucks County Democrats going into 2020 was the same as it is every campaign cycle: candidate recruitment. In contrast to past efforts, though, the national party was unable to convince anyone of note to run. This resulted in the party largely staying on the sidelines in one of the country’s most competitive House districts.
Christina Finello, an Ivyland Borough Councilwoman and county official, stepped into that void and won the Democratic nomination. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee gave her a late push, but the advantage Fitzpatrick had built by that time was far too large to overtake. A late campaign appearance with Joe Biden didn’t seem to move the needle at all for Finello.
By the time all the results were finally counted, Fitzpatrick won with 249,804 votes (56.56%) to Finello’s 191,875 votes (43.44%). A noticeable step up from the incumbent’s 2018 victory, which saw Fitzpatrick receive 169,053 votes (51.26%) to Scott Wallace’s 160,745 votes (48.74%).
(All maps by Nick Field via Dave’s Redistricting)
Advertisements
Looking at both maps, it’s clear that Finello ran behind Wallace pretty much everywhere. Although the differences are most apparent in places like Bensalem, Bristol, Doylestown, Levittown and Newtown. Finello’s performance gives us a good sense of what the Democratic Party’s PA-1 floor looks like in today’s polarized environment. To see what their ceiling could be, we have to examine the success of the new President.
2020 vs. 2016: How Biden Improved Upon Hillary’s Showing
(All maps by Nick Field via Dave’s Redistricting)
Running up the score in Bucks County was central to Joe Biden’s strategy of winning back Pennsylvania and rebuilding the ‘Blue Wall’. While Hillary Clinton won the district by two points in 2016, Biden got that margin up to nearly six by out-performing her just about everywhere.
(All maps by Nick Field via Dave’s Redistricting)
Advertisements
For example, Biden was able to flip areas like Buckingham, Perkasie, Quakertown, Upper Makefield and Warrington. He also had a significantly stronger showing in places such as Hatfield, Levittown, Lower Makefield and Newtown. On the other hand, Bensalem was one of the few areas where Trump improved from his 2016 performance.
By examining the Presidential-level results, we can see that Democratic Congressional candidates are leaving quite a few votes on the table in Upper and Central Bucks. At the same time, the party is experiencing a slow but persistent decline in Lower Bucks. It’s difficult to draw any definitive conclusions, however, given how uncertain the future is.
2022: First Congressional District and Fitzpatrick’s Future
The 2020 elections may very well have been the end of an era, now that the latest Census is in the books and a new round of redistricting is on the way.
Advertisements
It’s been a tradition in Pennsylvania not to divide up Bucks County when mapping out the district lines. Through nine Censuses and a Court-ordered redrawing, Bucks has remained intact. So, if the state’s redistricting website is accurate, this practice goes back to at least 1931! Nevertheless, with PA set to lose yet another House seat, the odds are higher than ever that Bucks will be bisected in some way.
This reality suggests countless possibilities. Upper Bucks County could be absorbed by a Lehigh Valley district or Lower Bucks County might be combined with Northeast Philadelphia. The latter prospect is particularly intriguing.
Advertisements
The redistricting process will be controlled by the Republican state legislature, but will still be subject to a potential veto from Governor Wolf. As a result, the final map will need to be at least somewhat bipartisan. One solution could be to draw a district that contains one Democratic Congressman and one Republican Congressman and let them fight it out. A battle between Brendan Boyle and Brian Fitzpatrick would fit these parameters.
Of course, there would likely be plenty of resistance to such a move (not least from the Boyle and Fitzpatrick camps). It also appears that we won’t know exactly what will happen for quite some time. Troubles with the census have delayed the process, and there’s already concerns that Pennsylvania’s 2022 primaries will need to be pushed back.
Advertisements
Such is life for a congressman in a toss-up district, just when you begin to get settled, the rules of the game change once again.
Report a correction via email | Editorial standards and policies
